Fitness N Sport

Archive for June 16th, 2009

Sea the Stars is the first horse in twenty years to complete the 2,000 Guineas and Derby double, and it was no fluke that he did it either. He is a superb horse with a profusion of the qualities that are necessary in an exceptional racehorse. His jockey Mick Kinane took Sea the Stars to an outstanding victory in his second Derby and the outcome was never at any point in the race in any doubt. It was Kinane’s 21st attempt at the race, and his third time winning it. In fact, the race was probably the perfect pre-birthday wish that Kinane would have wanted as he is to celebrate his 50th birthday in a few weeks time, and he has admitted that Sea the Stars has given him a new lease of life.

Since Sea the Stars’ victory there has been much speculation about a Triple Crown of the Guineas, Derby and St Leger and the 2010 Grand National which has not been done in almost 40 years when Niijinsky claimed the three. However, Sea the Stars’ trainer John Oxx has doubts – he thinks that the colt is going to be very comfortable at a mile and a quarter but the St Leger at Doncaster Racecourse; at one mile, six furlongs and 132 yards; could be a step too far. The Guineas is just over a mile, and four furlongs more didn’t seem to bother him in the slightest but Oxx knows exactly what he’s doing. This Derby is Oxx’s third runner and second win– he won it previously with Sinnadar in 2000, and should have won it with Alamshar who finished third, but he aims to look now towards the Irish Derby at the end of June or the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown a week later. Oxx is realistic though – he would obviously love Sea the Stars to win the Irish Derby at the Curragh, but knows that the horse needs good fast ground, and it is a well known fact that it hasn’t stopped raining in Ireland for about 3 years!

Sea the Stars shows how breeding really does matter in horseracing. Urban Sea, his dam was an Arc winner and has now produced two winners of the Derby, and this breeding could be an indication of how Sea the Stars completed the second leg of the treble with such apparent ease. Oxx has always held Sea the Stars in high esteem, because of his resilient physique and his cool temperament, but not even he could have imagined that he might be contemplating a potential Triple Crown champion, the first since Nijinsky. Bookmakers put the odds on such a feat at 5-4. While Oxx and Kinane are hesitant to put Sea the Stars in for the Leger and the chance to become a Triple Crown champion, the choice may end up being left to Sea the Stars’ owner Christopher Tsui, who at just 27 years of age must be absolutely delighted at his future prize winning potential!

The Belmont Stakes has become a tricky race to handicap lately for several
reasons.

Favorites have triumphed nearly 43 percent in the past 140 races, but during
the last 30 years only six scored – 23 percent. And a dozen winners paid
double-digits — 40 percent.

By now most Triple Crown fans know that horses rallying from far off the
pace don’t usually visit the winner’s circle after 1 ½ miles. The numbers
are more stunning upon closer examination.

During the past decade the winners averaged less than two lengths behind
after a mile. While there was only a single wire-to-wire winner, seven had
the lead after 1 ¼ miles, two were second and another was third.

Amazingly, all 10 were in front in the stretch. Those figures show vast
improvement over the previous decade.

From 1989 through ‘98, only one winner was in front after a mile. After 1 ¼
miles, five had the lead, three were second and two were third. Six led in
the stretch, three were second and two were third.

One bit of advice: Don’t let the tote board influence your horse betting
decisions. Just bet the horses you figure have the best chance.

So let’s get right to Saturday’s 141st Belmont starting with the toss-outs.
Say goodbye to Brave Victory, Luv Gov, Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird – just
four wins in 32 starts and three of those came in maiden races.

The slim-chance horses are:

Flying Private ran a fabulous fourth in the Preakness, but only has a maiden
victory at six furlongs back in August in a dozen outings.

Chocolate Candy won four of nine races on California synthetic surfaces, but
finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby beaten 13 lengths.

The main contenders, any of the four that can win, are:

Miner’s Escape: One of two Nick Zito trainees, 15-1 in the morning line, has
steadily improved this year. The son of Mineshaft posted two straight
victories on dirt, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park and capturing the
Federico Tesio by 4 ½ lengths, both at 1 1/8 miles.

He runs close to the pace and his granddad A. P. Indy scored in ‘92 after
missing the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Zito has saddled two
longshot winners in the past five races: Da’ Tara last year and Birdstone in ‘04. The price merits a win wager.

Dunkirk: The buzz horse for the Kentucky Derby had the worst trip of the 19 runners right from the break — stumbling, being bumped and steadied before the first turn. His granddad also is A.P. Indy while ‘90 Derby victor Unbridled is the dam sire.

Todd Pletcher won in ‘07 with Rags to Riches, guided by his new rider John
Velazquez. The early 4-1 second choice has two wins in four outings stalking
the pace. The rested colt has the highest speed figure in the filed of 10
when he ran second in the Florida Derby.

Mine That Bird: Eleven Derby winners that lost the Preakness since ‘23
captured the Belmont. Calvin Borel is back aboard after riding Preakness
winner Rachel Alexander and loves his chances.

However, this son of Birdstone was more than six lengths behind after a mile in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, losing the Preakness by a length. If the early 2-1 favorite is closer to the pace turning for home, he should
win. Can he post his third straight triple-digit speed figure? We shall see. He’s one of my two keys in the exotics.

Charitable Man: The son of ‘99 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid has several
things going for him besides breaking from the same post as his dad — 6. He
had the lead in the stretch for three of four wins on dirt, including two
scores at Belmont. His connections have been successful recently: Alan
Garcia rode Rag to Riches two years ago and Kiaran McLaughlin trained ‘06
champ Jazil.

The 4-1 second choice has good tactical speed while his running style fits the winning scenario — stalking before kicking in down the lane. His 3
¾-length score in the Peter Pan was excellent. And that race has produced at least one Belmont champ each decade since ‘44 when Bounding scored.

In case you believe in names, horses beginning with “C” have visited the
winner’s circle the most – 20 times. Make that 21.

Checkout Bookmaker the online racebook leader.